Wednesday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, VA, NV, NH, National — Momentum Shifting Back To Obama?

We have several new polls in today, including some interesting national data pointing to a potential Obama debate bounce. Numbers are below, followed by my analysis.

* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 44% — No previous poll (TIME)
* OHIO: Obama 47%, Romney 44% — No change since 1 week ago (SurveyUSA)
* OHIO: Obama 48%, Romney 48% — Romney +1% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 49%, Romney 46% — No previous poll (Zogby)
* NEVADA: Obama 51%, Romney 47% — No change since 1 week ago (Public Policy)
* NEVADA: Obama 50%, Romney 48% — Romney +1% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Romney 50%, Obama 48% — Romney +3% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)

* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 45% — Obama +2% since yesterday (RAND)
* NATIONAL: Obama 47%, Romney 44% — Obama +1% since yesterday (IBD/TIPP)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 47% — Obama +2% since yesterday (Gallup RV)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 48% — Obama +2% since yesterday (Public Policy)
* NATIONAL: Romney 47%, Obama 46% — Romney +2% since yesterday (Reuters)
* NATIONAL: Romney 49%, Obama 48% — No change since yesterday (ABC/Washington Post)
* NATIONAL: Romney 50%, Obama 47% — Obama +2% since yesterday (Gallup LV)
* NATIONAL: Romney 50%, Obama 46% — No change since yesterday (Rasmussen)

The daily national trackers all added in one day of post-debate samples today (Tuesday) and all showed Obama gains or no change except for Reuters, a sign of a potential Obama post-debate bounce (especially compared to the mostly non-existant second debate bounce he got). It’s also worth noting that Gallup’s approval rating for Obama, which is a three day sample and not a seven day sample like their head-to-head numbers, showed Obama’s net approval shooting up +5% today to its highest point since right before the first debate (53% approve, 42% disapprove). We will see tomorrow how big this bounce is poised to be as another post-debate day gets added to the sample while another pre-debate day gets dropped off, but even a net 1%-2% bounce for Obama would be hugely significant in an election this close. This also seems to raise questions as to whether Romney’s third debate strategy of more or less conceding most points and not fighting was wise. I wrote in my debate review that it was a very risky strategy because he didn’t come off anything like the passionate, aggressive Romney that swayed voters in debate one, while making Obama seem like the more Presidential and authoritative leader of the two. The “play it safe” strategy didn’t work for Obama in debate one, and it doesn’t appear to have worked for Romney in debate three.

On the state poll level, the headline poll today is the big TIME Ohio poll showing Obama up 5% on the back of a whopping 60% to 30% lead in early voting (worth noting that only half the poll was conducted after the final debate, the other half before it). The TIME poll is a high-quality, live interview poll. Virtually every high-quality, live interview poll we have seen has shown Obama with fairly comfortable leads in Ohio of 4% and higher. The huge early voting margins that Obama is opening up in states like Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada are going to be crucial, particularly if he is turning out the types of voters that polls consider to be unlikely voters (more on that below). Nevada also continues to look like it is solidifying behind Obama, forming a key part of the Obama firewall along with Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

The Obama campaign is claiming that they are turning out the types of voters that pollsters would tend to label as unlikely voters and filter out of likely voter models. If that is the case, it would be a significant development because of how large the gap has been between the registered voter models in polls, which tend to improve Obama’s numbers by 3-7%, and the likely voter models, which tend to improve Romney’s numbers by 3-7%. If the truth is even somewhere in the middle, it would amount to what is essentially a 1.5-3.5% bounce for Obama. Turnout is everything at this point. The campaign that is able to turnout more on-the-margin, unlikely voters is probably going to win.

One other important development today is that when you take everything that has happened today as a whole — the third debate victory momentum for Obama, the shifts to Obama in most of the daily tracking polls, his approval rating surging to its highest point since before the first debate, today’s TIME Ohio poll, the Obama campaign showing total confidence to the media that they are in position to win, the Mourdock distraction for Romney, etc. — we are starting to see the media narrative shift away from the Romney momentum narrative that has dominated since the first debate. That is a very key development going into the final days of this election.

Of course, tomorrow will tell us a lot more about how real the Obama bounce is, and we’ll need to wait until then to form any concrete conclusions.