Friday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, FL, VA, CO, NV, WI, IA, NC, NH, National

By Ashish Pabari On October 26, 2012 · 13 Comments

We have one of the busiest days in polling in awhile today, with 17 new swing state polls, along with the eight national daily trackers. The numbers are below, followed by my analysis.

* OHIO: Obama 50%, Romney 46% — No change since 3 weeks ago (CNN)
* OHIO: Obama 46%, Romney 44% — Romney +2% since 1 month ago (Purple)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 47% — Obama +3% since 2 weeks ago (ARG)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 47%, Romney 47% — Romney +3% since 1 month ago (Purple)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 47%, Obama 45% — Romney +9% since 1 month ago (FOX News)
* FLORIDA: Romney 50%, Obama 48% — Obama +3% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)
* COLORADO: Obama 47%, Romney 46% — Romney +2% since 1 month ago (Purple)
* IOWA: Obama 50%, Romney 46% — No previous poll (Gravis)
* NEVADA: Obama 50%, Romney 49% — No change since 3 weeks ago (Gravis)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 48%, Obama 47% — Romney +5% since 1 month ago (Civitas)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 53%, Obama 45% — Obama +1% since 2 weeks ago (Gravis)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 47%, Romney 44% — No change since 1 week ago (Grove)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 48%, Romney 43% — Obama +2% since 1 week ago (Grove)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 49%, Romney 49% — Romney +2% since 1 week ago (Rasmussen)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 49%, Romney 46% — No previous poll (New England College)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 48%, Romney 45% — No previous poll (Lake Research)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 47%, Romney 44% — No previous poll (Grove)

* NATIONAL: Obama 51%, Romney 45% — Obama +1% since yesterday | Obama +4% since Wednesday (RAND)
* NATIONAL: Obama 47%, Romney 45% — No change since yesterday | No change since Wednesday (IBD/TIPP)
* NATIONAL: Obama 47%, Romney 46% — Obama +2% since yesterday | No change since Wednesday (Reuters)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 48% — Romney +1% since yesterday | Obama +1% since Wednesday (Gallup RV)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 48% — Romney +1% since yesterday | Obama +2% since Wednesday(Public Policy)
* NATIONAL: Romney 49%, Obama 48% — Obama +2% since yesterday | No change since Wednesday (ABC/Washington Post)
* NATIONAL: Romney 50%, Obama 47% — No change since yesterday | Obama +1% since Wednesday (Rasmussen)
* NATIONAL: Romney 51%, Obama 46% — Romney +2% since yesterday | No change since Wednesday (Gallup LV)

* OVERALL AVERAGE OBAMA TRACKING POLL BOUNCE SINCE DEBATE: +1.0%

With three full days of post-debate samples now in all the daily tracking polls, Obama’s net average bounce nationally sits at 1.0%. As I said in my debate review, even a 1%-2% bounce would be huge, and he appears to have gotten that. The question now becomes, will it last, or will it fade in the coming days?

The 16 swing state polls also continue to reinforce where we are at — Obama is maintaining a stubborn lead in the electoral college, largely on the strength of Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada, but is also improving his positions in most swing states, with Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Virginia all looking like toss-ups now after shifting to lean-Romney 1-2 weeks ago. Most of today’s polls came from partisan firms (Rasmussen, Gravis, Purple State Strategies, Grove, Civitas), and many had not posted new polls since prior to the first debate (particularly Purple State Strategies), so the trend line isn’t as noteworthy as it is in polls that published one or two weeks ago and then again this week. The CNN Ohio poll is the one getting most of the attention today, and rightfully so, as Romney has failed to make any gains in the state over the past three weeks and remains behind by a fairly significant 4% margin. The trends of the polling averages, which I continue to stress as the most important polling numbers to follow, show positive Obama trends in virtually all the swing states compared to a week or two ago.

That being said, his average leads in Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire do remain narrow. One thing that I think is starting to get some attention is the idea that Romney may actually have a better shot at flipping Wisconsin than Ohio. I have my doubts about that, seeing as Romney hasn’t led a single poll of Wisconsin in months. But for arguments sake, let’s say Romney is able to win Wisconsin and not Ohio, while Obama holds on to the rest of his firewall (Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada). Let’s also put North Carolina and Florida in Romney’s column. That leaves us at 267 Obama, 245 Romney. Romney would then need to sweep Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire just to get to 271.

What if Romney pulls out Ohio, but not Wisconsin? Again, let’s give Romney North Carolina and Florida, along with Ohio, and give Obama the rest of his firewall (Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin). That puts Obama at 259, Romney at 253. Obama would then top 270 by either winning Virginia or winning both Colorado and New Hampshire.

My point here is that Obama has several paths to 270 without Ohio and several paths without Wisconsin. Hell, even if Obama lost Ohio AND Wisconsin, he could still get to 271 by holding on to Nevada and Iowa, and then adding in Colorado and Virginia. Obama continues to have a very favorable map, while Romney has no path to victory unless he flips at least Ohio or Wisconsin, along with Florida, North Carolina, and some combination of Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire. It’s a difficult map and points to the inherent electoral problem he faces. He would need another 1-2% shift back to him nationally to get the electoral college in a true “toss up” position.

13 Responses to Friday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, FL, VA, CO, NV, WI, IA, NC, NH, National

Buddy Holly says:

October 26, 2012 at 4:31 PM

I don’t think these polls represent Latinos as much as they should, considering many prefer to do things in Spanish even if they speak English (like my parents). If they show a tie in NV or CO, I’d give it to Obama.

Reply
- Lawrence says:
  
  October 26, 2012 at 4:53 PM
  
  I agree. The polls there are always underrepresenting us. Lets not forget that obama is winning the latino vote by more than 70% and although there are enthusiasm issues with his base, hispanics are NOT one of them. We are poised to decide who becomes president this election and AMERICA don’t see it coming. We won’t be ignored anymore after this…. Watch!
  
  Reply
  - willia451 says:
    
    October 26, 2012 at 7:11 PM
    
    I’m not convinced the Latin-American vote is being ignored right now; quite frankly.
    
    The Democrats did everything they could to get the Dream Act passed during the 2010 lame duck. And when it did not, President Obama called out the Republicans for blocking it…and later implemented its spirit via executive order.
    
    President Obama has also made comprehensive immigration reform an issue in his campaign; stating such a bill could pass if he’s re-elected by the end of 2013.
    
    I mean, who knows what he would really be able to get passed in Congress if re-elected? The Republicans will probably still control the House. And the margin of Democrats in the Senate to hold a majority will probably still be slim….far from 60.
    
    But I believe the emphasis *IS* there. At least on the Democratic side.
    
    Probably why President Obama, as you stated, is currently pulling 70% of the Latin-American vote.
    
    Reply
    - Lawrence says:
      
      October 26, 2012 at 10:33 PM
      
      Well, by the Republicans I mean. We are going to send a message loud and clear. We are Americans too and our issues deserve to be addressed in a com
      
      Reply
  - Anonymous says:
    
    October 28, 2012 at 5:20 PM
    
    LOL, easy there killer…
    
    Reply
Geoff says:

October 26, 2012 at 6:37 PM

What are the odds Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral college? I doubt it’ll happen to Romney but I think the odds are higher then people think since Romney is leading in several national polls but Obama is leading in enough states to win the electoral college. As a staunch yet somewhat disappointed Obama supporter I would prefer that he not win that way but if he does he does and I would gladly accept it because I pretty much hate Romney and don’t want him anywhere near the White House. If that offends people I apologize but that’s how I feel.

Reply
- Cbear says:
  
  October 26, 2012 at 10:35 PM
  
  I know how you feel on regards to possibility a candidate could win the popular vote and lose in the electoral college.
  
  Back in 2000, my parents felt cheated because Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral count (not to mention Florida).
  
  I told them to get over it, since I was a Bush supporter. Boy that feeling would be weird if the show is on the other foot for a change.
  
  Reply
- Jeff says:
  
  October 27, 2012 at 10:46 AM
  
  I don’t put too much stock in “what if he wins the EC but not the popular vote?” In the words of a great man, “You play to win the game.” Obama and Romney base their strategies on the EC, not on the popular vote. If the election was decided on the popular vote, both candidates would have a significantly different strategy. You’d see Obama spending huge money on GOTV efforts in CA, NY, and other heavily Dem areas, and you’d see Romney doing the same. I also believe there would be significantly less advertising, since you’d have to spend money to advertise nationwide instead of just in the swing states. I’m in OH, and all we get right now are political ads, while 2/3 of the country is basically ignored. But both candidates are trying to win the election based on the rules as they are. I never really felt like Gore was screwed because he won the popular vote but lost the EC (I thought he was screwed because of the BS Florida situation). Anyways, that’s my. $.02.
  
  Reply
willia451 says:

October 26, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Ashish, I’m curious. You stated above:

*Most of today’s polls came from partisan firms*

I would be interested to know which of the firms in the polling samples above you consider “partisan” and on which side they fall?

Not trying to be cute or anything like that (although I am prone to it; just not this time).

Here are my thoughts in advance. Most of the firms cited above “lean” Republican or “lean” Democratic based on their sampling and weighting methods. Not necessarily because they really *ARE* “partisan”. Although I guess it amounts to the same thing. In effect.

But you go farther. Calling some out for actually *being* partisan.

Your thoughts?

Reply
Geoff says:

October 27, 2012 at 12:53 PM

I don’t think Al Gore would have been a very good president. Look at how he’s running Current TV. But hey a Gore presidency was never meant to be. If it was he would have been the president and maybe Bush would have run for reelection as Governer, maybe even the US Senate. But he was supposed to be president, he was destined to be. When something is meant to be absolutely nothing is going to stop it from happening.

Reply
- Alan says:
  
  October 27, 2012 at 1:10 PM
  
  Is that you, Alberto Del Rio?
  
  Reply
- Scipio2009 says:
  
  October 28, 2012 at 1:44 PM
  
  How “good” or not “good” a poential Gore presidency could’ve been is beside the point; Clinton left the office with a structural annual surplus of $110-$130 billion per year, for the forseeable future.
  
  All the country needed was someone keep sane and keep things moving in that steady direction. Running of Current TV aside, I think Gore could’ve done the job.
  
  Whether Bush 2 was supposed to be president is open for debate, especially in the manner and way he became POTUS.
  
  Reply
Geoff says:

October 27, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Good one!

Reply