Thursday Swing State Polls Analysis: VA, CO, NH, IA, NV, NC, WI

By Ashish Pabari On November 1, 2012 · 14 Comments

Another day of very bad state poll numbers for Romney today. His only path to victory at this point seems to be to hope that Rasmussen is right and that literally every other pollster is wrong. This was the same point John McCain was left in right before the 2008 election, as Rasmussen was the only pollster showing him having a shot. The result? Rasmussen was wrong, and everyone else was right. I’m not saying that is what is going to happen this time, but it’s worth mentioning that we saw an identical situation in 2008 and saw how that turned out. It’s certainly possible that all the polls except Rasmussen are wrong in their electorate turnout model, but that isn’t the type of thing that happens very often.

Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis. I’m no longer listing the trends, as they don’t really matter now. All that matters at this point is who is winning and who is losing.

* VIRGINIA: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (Public Policy)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (CNN)
* COLORADO: ROmney 50%, Obama 47% (Rasmussen)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* IOWA: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (NBC/WSJ)
* IOWA: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* NEVADA: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Romney 46%, Obama 45% (High Point)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 51%, Romney 42% (WPR)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 49%, Romney 46% (NBC/WSJ)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Obama has also taken the national lead in average national polls, now up to 1.4%.

The numbers speak for themselves. Every poll has Romney losing in every swing state except North Carolina — the one exception being Rasmussen. Like I said, this was the exact same in 2008, when Rasmussen was the only pollster showing Ohio tied, McCain leading in Florida, etc. We all know how that turned out.

Either Obama is on his way to victory Tuesday, or the polls are going to be historically wrong and result in a Romney upset win.

14 Responses to Thursday Swing State Polls Analysis: VA, CO, NH, IA, NV, NC, WI

Chester says:

November 1, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I get dismissing a particular poll here or there. Particularly if they’re from an unknown outfit or one that’s considered to have a certain bias somewhere. Certainly even I do that to a degree.

What I don’t understand is how the lunatic GOP people I see posting on other sites, believe that you can dismiss all the polls or 90% of them. I mean, surely at some point, common sense would tell you that perhaps there’s something to this.

Then again, these are the same people that believe EVERY outlet of media is against them, with the except of Fox News. I’ve never understood that… And then believing that Fox isn’t biased. I mean, you can’t watch their programming and not see bias there. Certainly some shows are less biased than others, but I guess it’s like a bubble that they live in or something. It’s scary, though.

I actually think the media has been mostly, anti-Obama this year. CNN has swung heavily to the right, Yahoo and even Huffpost are constantly touting pro-Romney articles and headlines and it’s generally just been an atmosphere that’s conducive to the right wing agenda… Yet I still see moronic GOP posters talking about how the media is all trying to prop Obama up. It’s so delusional, it’s disturbing.

I recently read an article that was on Yahoo that was decidedly anti-Obama. It was practically a scathing damnation of him and a fluff piece of Romney… Yet the comment section was littered with “Another pro-Obama piece” nonsense from GOP posters who I assume just couldn’t comprehend what the hell was written or saw a picture of Obama that wasn’t painted up like the Joker and just assumed it was a pro-Obama article.

I dunno, it just amazes me I guess.

It’s sort of like how they constantly talk about how Rasmussen is the most accurate or how Gallup is the most trusted or how those two Colorado professors have been tracking the elections since 1980 and were never wrong, thus their prediction must be correct. Except none of those things are true, particularly the last one, as those two professors just made that up this year.

Are people really this insane? I mean, this isn’t stupidity, it’s just plain insanity.

Which reminds me… I went to a Halloween party last night and one of my relatives started talking about how he was going to vote for Romney. It was loud, so I didn’t hear everything, but I heard him say that Obama didn’t need 4 more years because he hadn’t done anything. And that he saw the Obama commercial mentioning Osama Bin Laden and how it was really BUSH who had gotten Osama and it was BUSH who had given the order to seek him out.

This guy is not some backwoods idiot. He’s not the smartest guy ever, OBVIOUSLY, but he’s a generally decent guy in most other ways. Yet somehow, he had came to believe these inconceivable fallacies. It made me sick to my stomach, honestly.

He then said that the Republicans just needed to take control for a few years and get things back straight and then he could vote for Democrats again. As if everything that happened to the economy had somehow happened on Obama’s watch.

So baffling. Maybe it’s something they’re putting in the water.

Reply
- justjoe says:
  
  November 1, 2012 at 8:04 PM
  
  I live in nw ohio and I have decent friends who think the same thing. They are middleclass blue collar hard workers that don’t get that they are voting against their interest. I would say that its fox news and limbaugh but here’s the thing: they don’t really go there for informatikon (they think they do). They go there for affirmation and that’s exactly what they get. Fox and limbaugh know it and make a crap load of money selling nothing but affirmation.
  
  Reply
  - G-man says:
    
    November 2, 2012 at 4:00 AM
    
    Basically the media is terrified of being called bias by Fox News (just check their website which pointing out “liberal bias” for anything that even praises or Obama or ignores Romeny), so despite what the polls say pundits call it even. The reason Fox News picks out the polls that are for Romeny is the hope that people will turn out to vote, if they think he has no chance of winning they might just stay home.
    
    This is why people are abandoning MSM, because they have no interest in facts, they want to call it even.
    
    Reply
- willia451 says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 5:53 AM
  
  Nice rant. Here’s the thing. The vast majority live in a bubble. They don’t have to be there. They are choosing to be there. Its just easier. And they will defend their bubble at all costs.
  
  The MSM and their cohorts are “for profit”. So they simply give the people what their internals tell them they want to hear. And by “people”, I mean people that buy stuff. If your ability to “buy stuff” is limited, then you are not considerable.
  
  And the wheel just keeps on turning.
  
  Reply
Nods says:

November 1, 2012 at 8:02 PM

I’m looking forward to seeing Gallup finally update their poll on Monday. All national polls are showing movement to Obama, he even took the lead in the ABC/Washington Post tracker. Gallup hasn’t polled all week, so there final one on Monday will be interesting.

That being said, this election looks over unless every poll is wrong, like Ashish said.

Reply
- Chester says:
  
  November 1, 2012 at 8:42 PM
  
  I’ve sort of wondered (and meant to Ash his thoughts) that some of the bad Republican pollsters were NOT going to move back to Obama this election cycle and instead pin the blame on Sandy. Basically saying that there was a late movement that they weren’t able to gauge because they couldn’t poll.
  
  But I dunno, cause Rasmussen seems to be doubling down on the Romney leads.
  
  Reply
  - willia451 says:
    
    November 2, 2012 at 8:57 AM
    
    Don’t blame Rasmussen for knowing which side their bread is buttered on.
    
    There is no doubt Rasumssen is biased. And there is no doubt, they don’t care.
    
    The real question is are they “partisan”. I would submit that it does not matter. Because the effect is the same; either way.
    
    Reply
Paul says:

November 1, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Obama will get his 280-290 electoral votes. Romney has nothing right now, he is trying to bluff big time in hopes of getting the media to ignore day after day of bad polls.

Reply
coby says:

November 2, 2012 at 1:51 AM

ok for those who haven’t been to yahoo, here have been some of there headlines More people named Sandy give to Obama. That is just one of the many pro-Obama fluff pieces that have been done on Obama and oh yeah today the natinoal media actually had to acknowledge the Bengazi story and if he does get re-elected could see him impeached over it as it has become a full-blown scandal and if Obama get’s re-elected and the GOP wins enough seats to take the Senate, Obama could see his 2nd term end up much like Clinton’s 2nd term having to deal with impeachment proceedings, so even if he does win, if the GOP wins the Senate, then the Bengahzi story will get bigger so even if obama wins tuesday everything won’t be sunshine and lollipops if the GOP take the Senate and they will make his 2nd term one of the most ineffective, and I have a feeling if he does win Hillary is likely to leave her post as secratary of defense as it looks like she will either resign or be forced out because of the Bengazhi mess

Reply
- Lee says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 3:38 PM
  
  when did Hilary become Secretary of Defense? She is Secretary of State. Plus it doesn’t look likely that the GOP will retake the Senate, sorry.
  
  Reply
- willia451 says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 3:59 PM
  
  Some advice? Try paragraphs, good punctuation, and a spell checker.
  
  Then maybe folks will take you a little more seriously.
  
  As it stands, your post just smacks of spam.
  
  Reply
- Todd says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 4:01 PM
  
  Hillary Clinton is Secretary of State, not defense and do you even know what impeached means?
  
  I was going to post something today about how much nicer this forum is since it was moved off of 411; no idiots, no trolls, just rational discussion amongst adults who sometimes agree and sometimes disagree.
  
  Go hang out with Enrique please.
  
  Reply
  - Anonymous says:
    
    November 2, 2012 at 4:33 PM
    
    coby seems to be the only one of the the “Anti-Obama/GOP” people who flocked over here, thank God for that.
    
    Reply
    - G-man says:
      
      November 2, 2012 at 7:11 PM
      
      Coby is right in one respect, the GOP will try to impeach Obama. But that says more about Republican than Obama.
      
      Reply