Friday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, VA, CO, WI, IA, NH

By Ashish Pabari On November 2, 2012 · 22 Comments

We’re now down to just three full days left before election day, and the polling news continues to tell the same story.

Here are the numbers, followed by my analysis.

* OHIO: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (CNN)
* OHIO: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (We Ask America)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (We Ask America)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Public Policy)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (CNN)
* COLORADO: Obama 47%, Romney 45% (SurveyUSA)
* WISCONSIN: Obama 52%, Romney 45% (We Ask America)
* IOWA: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (Gravis)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 44% (New England College)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Gravis)

Again, the numbers speak for themselves. Obama is at 49% or above in EVERY poll released today except the SurveyUSA poll of Colorado, and even that poll still had Obama up by 2%. Once you have a candidate hitting 49% or up in virtually every swing state, it tells you that he is in very good position to win because he doesn’t need undecideds to break to him. Even the Rasmussen poll which had Ohio tied, which is the only decent poll for Romney today, actually shows momentum to Obama as their last Ohio poll had Romney up by 2%.

We literally have a situation now where Rasmussen is the only pollster showing numbers that even give Romney a chance. If the poll numbers from the dozens of other regular swing state pollsters that we’ve been following for years are accurate, Obama is going to top 270, and possibly hit 290 or 303 (290 would require winning Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado; 303 would be hit if you add Virginia to that).

Campaigns usually reveal what they really think about the state of the race, not by what they say, but by how they act. The fact that the Romney campaign is spending its final days dismissing another positive jobs report, having its lead pollster try to convince the media that all the polls are wrong, and going for a last-minute hail mary in Pennsylvania, points to a campaign that is facing a tough reality. We saw this in 2008 too, when John McCain returned to Pennsylvania in the final days and insisted he had momentum and had a shot at the state. The polls were also similar — every swing state pollster showed Obama on his way to victory except Rasmussen.

So we’re left now with a simple reality — turnout will decide who wins this election and which pollster is right. If Obama fails to turnout his voters, and the electorate looks more like what Rasmussen has been modeling, Romney has a chance. If Obama does turnout his voters, and the electorate looks like what every pollster except Rasmussen has been modeling, Obama is on his way to a comfortable win on Tuesday. If the turnout is somewhere in between the two, Obama is a favorite to sneak by with 277-281 electoral votes. We won’t know what the turnout is like until Tuesday.

The national polls, which have shown a slight bounce for Obama over the past few days, may be picking up a positive reaction to Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy and all the Chris Christie praise.

With the clock ticking down, the momentum seems to be on Obama’s side and he is closing strongly. The polls are in his favor and show continued momentum to him, he has been nationally praised for his handling of Sandy, and the final unpredictable variable — the jobs report — came in positive for Obama.

22 Responses to Friday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, VA, CO, WI, IA, NH

Steve says:

November 2, 2012 at 7:06 PM

I am aghast at how low Romney will go. First, behind closed doors, he insults half the nation. Then, as a last ditch effort, he throws a lie around about Chrysler. Now, he says to vote for him because Obama proved he couldn’t work with Congress. How many times will he insult the intelligence of America?

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willia451 says:

November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Well….nice try Romney. Thanks for playing. You can grab a white flag from Sarah Palin. She has a ton of them.

We also have some nice parting gifts for you behind door #1. Please follow the blue dots on the floor.

And there are many job opportunities on our website. Log onto http://IgotbeatdownbyObama.com. You won’t be the first.

Have at it.

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- Sean says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 7:57 PM
  
  I will admit, I did click on the website hoping for tremendous things…
  
  Reply
- Jamal says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 8:02 PM
  
  Romney will be immediately hired by Fox News.
  
  Reply
  - Reg says:
    
    November 2, 2012 at 8:51 PM
    
    Romney isn’t going to fox. He’s too rich for that. Plus he has no personality. He’ll probably go back to his leverage buyout ways stashing more and more cash in the Caymans.
    
    Reply
Dirk Diggler says:

November 2, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Well, I freaked out after that first debate but things look like they’ll work out after all. Looking forward to Obama being a tiny bit more liberal and pushing harder on things like immigration. Oh, and goodbye to the Obamacare repeal–yay! I don’t know about you guys, but I’ll be watching Fox News on election night; should be hilarious.

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- Jamal says:
  
  November 2, 2012 at 9:39 PM
  
  I want him to do some REALLY liberal stuff in his second term, like pardoning Mumia Abu-Jamal on Tuesday Night.
  
  Reply
  - Anonymous says:
    
    November 2, 2012 at 10:13 PM
    
    Rage Against The Machine will celebrate in the streets if Obama does that.
    
    Reply
    - Mr. Ballistik says:
      
      November 3, 2012 at 1:04 AM
      
      Does this mean four more years of the Tea Party?
      
      Reply
      - Ray says:
        
        November 4, 2012 at 5:50 PM
        
        You think it didn’t if we elected Romney?
John T says:

November 2, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Romney will have to wait until 2016 when he will lose to Hilary.

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Iggy says:

November 3, 2012 at 12:52 AM

I can’t wait until I get to vote for Obama on Tuesday.

Really we have no choice.

What it all comes down to is voting for the devil we know vs. the devil we don’t.

In reality, Obama really hasn’t done that bad of a job. Sure, unemployment is still high and there are fewer workers in the job market, but at least they have welfare and food stamps to fall back on.

And as far as our debt goes, it doesn’t really matter if a Democrat is President. If Obama is reelected, we can continue to ignore it, therefore rendering it irrelevant. If Romney gets elected, the debt is going to be a huge deal again, with tons of news stories about us mortgaging our children’s future and other such crap. I’d rather not think about it.

And Obamacare? Shoot, I’m too stupid to make informed decisions on the health and well being of myself and my family anyway. Its much better if we just let the government take care of our every need. So long as the wife gets free birth control and abortions it’s all good. I’m fine with rationing.

And the rich really do need to pay their fair share at a higher rate than anyone else. They keep hoarding all that money for themselves when I’m sitting here without the latest iPhone or a Chevy Volt. We can never really consider ourselves fair until we take more money from those who earn it and give it to those who don’t. And Romney is rich and that makes him unfair. Its an easy choice if you ask me.

I could go on, but you get the idea. My choice is clear. Four more years of hope may actually bring the change we were promised. We should just ignore Obama’s past record and focus on the future. After all, the mess he inherited was so bad it couldn’t be fixed in four years. Hell, it probably won’t be fixed in eight, but at least we’ll have a cool President not fixing it.

That is why we should all vote for Obama.

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- Anonymous says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 11:59 AM
  
  Gosh, I wonder if Iggy isn’t an Obama fan… *eyeroll*
  
  Reply
- Person says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 12:04 PM
  
  No need to be a condescending prick there Iggy, if you wanna vote for Romney, just say you’re gonna vote for Romney.
  
  Reply
- willia451 says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 12:05 PM
  
  Impressive. I think you hit almost every talking point on that one. And with heavy, dripping sarcasm to boot.
  
  Well done.
  
  I will say this about it. Those that I’ve known that think this way are the first to go whining and crying to the gov’ment for help when they get into trouble or they need help.
  
  It’s just the way of things.
  
  Reply
- Ron Mexico says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 7:46 PM
  
  Wow. You’re like crazy butthurt. Sadly, you didn’t completely fill out your “Uninformed Republican Cliche Talking Point Bingo Card” because you failed to call the president a Muslim.
  
  You’ll get ‘em next time, tiger!
  
  Reply
- Chester says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 7:50 PM
  
  I don’t mind a good dose of snark time to time, but this would have been more effective if it was something that Obama supporters actually say and/or think.
  
  You see, often we find Obama supporters will post snarky, mocking of Romney/GOP posters by acting like one. However, what makes those posts good snark and amusing, is that they use the very same sort of lines and logic (or lack there of) that the Romney/GOP folks use. It’s twisted and absurd, which is what makes it amusing.
  
  Conversely, you’re going on and on about a free ride… But nobody who supports Obama does so because of a free ride. And even if they do, it’s certainly not something they brag about. The only people who believe that Obama hands out phones, gives them free stuff and is intent to run the country into the ground… Are those very same insane GOP posters.
  
  So this failed on every level.
  
  I have NEVER seen a single Obama supporter interested in a free ride of any sort. Whether they benefit from it or not, that’s certainly not WHY they’re in it.
  
  Meanwhile, these are very real, very candid Romney supporters: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nY0M7IdNl7U
  
  Scary.
  
  Reply
coby says:

November 3, 2012 at 2:27 AM

yeah never mind the fact that Obama said at this point ins his term we should be at 5.2 % and that if we had the same # people in the workforce that unemployment would be 10.9 %, never mind the fact he said he would be the most transparent presidency ever, also we still haven’t gotten a clear answer on bengazi, and had that happened under bush, they would’ve been all over Bush and oh yeah despite what Obama has put out there his handling of Sandy has been horrfic. Plus again he could tax all the rich all he wanted, but even if he taxed them at a 100 % for a year it would take in about 86 billion, which would hardly be a drop in the bucket. I mean again they act as if Obama is going to win by a landslide when it is still a dead-heat and most of the polling models use a 2008 turnout, when that is likely not going to be the case and oh yeah what also isn’t being reported in Ohio is that Obama is doing worse in early voting, which is why he won big in 2008 over McCain then he is this election cycle and oh yeah also what isn’t reported the black unemployment rate which is at 14.3 % this month, which the previous month was 13.4 %. Plus again even if Obama wins nothing will change as rcp on the 435 house races, only 60 are competive and the house is likely to stay with the Republicans and in the Senate you could see a possiblity of a net pick-up of 3 by the Republicans meaning you’d have a 50-49 split there , meaning let’s say hypotehtically Romney does win, well guess who casts tie-breaking votes in the senate, oh yeah the vp

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- Anonymous says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 3:36 PM
  
  Since you won’t shut the hell up about Benghazi coby, maybe this will:
  
  http://thinkprogress.org/security/2012/11/02/1128831/new-details-discredit-fox-news-benghazi/?mobile=nc
  
  Hope that shuts your ignorant mouth up there junior.
  
  Reply
- willia451 says:
  
  November 3, 2012 at 4:10 PM
  
  The Great Wall of Text. LOL!!
  
  TL;DR
  
  Reply
- Ray says:
  
  November 4, 2012 at 5:58 PM
  
  Coby, if you want to get up and arms about Obama doing nothing about unemployment – tell your Representatives to stop blocking legislation. There were plenty of jobs bills that have been blocked / filibustered by the Republicans, and plenty of Republican “job bills” that amounted to nothing more than more tax cuts on the rich and underhanded abortion legislation.
  
  Trying to blame Obama for not getting things done is like blaming the shop owner in a snatch and grab for the glass he left on the pavement. If you want to get something done, vote the Republicans out in the down-ticket races.
  
  Reply
Anonymous says:

November 3, 2012 at 9:22 PM

Uh oh Republicans, don’t look now, but your boy Mittens may be charged with a crime:

http://act.watchdog.net/petitions/1818?share_ref=UIdkAAVRi0A

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