Polling Averages Show Momentum For Obama In Final Days
As the 2012 election enters its final full day tomorrow, it’s pretty clear from the polling data that Obama has had significant momentum in the swing states since the final debate. What I’ve done below is compare the polling averages on October 22nd, the day of the final debate, with where we stand today.
The polling averages in every state have shifted to Obama except for Florida. Obama has seen his largest bounce in Ohio (+3.0%), New Hampshire (+2.3%), and Wisconsin (+2.1%) and his lowest bounces in Florida (-1.0%) and North Carolina (+0.8%).
Many high profile Republicans such as Karl Rove have been saying over the last few days that if Romney does lose on Tuesday, Hurricane Sandy will be to blame. But it’s pretty clear in the data that the momentum shift back to Obama began with that final debate performance.
As I’ve been stressing for months, the polling averages are much more reliable and worth paying attention to than individual poll numbers. Polling averages rarely get it wrong, and right now Obama is leading the polling averages in every single swing state except Florida and North Carolina.
OHIO
October 22nd: Obama +2.1%
November 4th: Obama +5.1%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +3.0%
VIRGINIA
October 22nd: Obama +0.1%
November 4th: Obama +2.1%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +2.0%
FLORIDA
October 22nd: Romney +0.2%
November 4th: Romney +1.2%
TOTAL SHIFT: Romney +1.0%
IOWA
October 22nd: Obama +2.1%
November 4th: Obama +3.4%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +1.3%
COLORADO
October 22nd: Obama +0.4%
November 4th: Obama +2.1%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +1.7%
NEVADA
October 22nd: Obama +3.7%
November 4th: Obama +4.8%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +1.1%
WISCONSIN
October 22nd: Obama +3.4%
November 4th: Obama +5.5%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +2.1%
NORTH CAROLINA
October 22nd: Romney +2.3%
November 4th: Romney 1.5%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +0.8%
NEW HAMPSHIRE
October 22nd: Obama +1.1%
November 4th: Obama +3.3%
TOTAL SHIFT: Obama +2.3%
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Latest Key State Polls
- 11.05.12 | OHIO (SurveyUSA)
Obama 49%, Romney 44% - 11.05.12 | OHIO (Gravis)
Obama 49%, Romney 48% - 11.05.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.05.12 | COLORADO (Keating)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.05.12 | FLORIDA (Gravis)
Obama 49%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | COLORADO (Public Policy)
Obama 52%, Romney 46% - 11.05.12 | NEVADA (Public Policy)
Obama 51%, Romney 47% - 11.05.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR)
Obama 51%, Romney 48% - 11.05.12 | OHIO (Univ. of Cin)
Obama 50%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (New Eng. Coll.)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.05.12 | VIRGINIA (Rasmussen)
Romney 50%, Obama 48% - 11.05.12 | OHIO (Rasmussen)
Obama 49%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | FLORIDA (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | NORTH CAROLINA (Public Policy)
Obama 49%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | VIRGINIA (NBC/WSJ)
Obama 48%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | OHIO (Public Policy)
Obama 52%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | VIRGINIA (Public Policy)
Obama 51%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.04.12 | IOWA (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.04.12 | OHIO (YouGov)
Obama 49%, Romney 46% - 11.04.12 | FLORIDA (YouGov)
Romney 48%, Obama 47% - 11.04.12 | VIRGINIA (YouGov)
Obama 48%, Romney 46% - 11.04.12 | WISCONSIN (YouGov)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.04.12 | COLORADO (YouGov)
Obama 48%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (YouGov)
Obama 47%, Romney 43% - 11.04.12 | NEVADA (YouGov)
Obama 49%, Romney 45% - 11.04.12 | IOWA (YouGov)
Obama 48%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov)
Romney 49%, Obama 47% - 11.04.12 | IOWA (Des Moines Register)
Obama 47%, Romney 42% - 11.04.12 | WISCONSIN (Public Policy)
Obama 51%, Romney 48% - 11.04.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Obama 47%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | OHIO (Columbus Dispatch)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.03.12 | OHIO (Grove)
Obama 49%, Romney 45% - 11.03.12 | WISCONSIN (Grove)
Obama 48%, Romney 42% - 11.03.12 | IOWA (Grove)
Obama 47%, Romney 44% - 11.03.12 | OHIO (NBC/WSJ)
Obama 51%, Romney 45% - 11.03.12 | FLORIDA (NBC/WSJ)
Obama 49%, Romney 47% - 11.03.12 | FLORIDA (Miami Herald)
Romney 51%, Obama 45% - 11.02.12 | OHIO (CNN)
Obama 50%, Romney 47% - 11.02.12 | OHIO (WeAskAmerica)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.02.12 | WISCONSIN (WeAskAmerica)
Obama 52%, Romney 45% - 11.02.12 | VIRGINIA (WeAskAmerica)
Obama 49%, Romney 48% - 11.02.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gravis)
Obama 50%, Romney 49% - 11.02.12 | COLORADO (SurveyUSA)
Obama 47%, Romney 45% - 11.02.12 | COLORADO (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.02.12 | IOWA (Gravis)
Obama 49%, Romney 45% - 11.02.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (New Eng College)
Obama 50%, Romney 44% - 11.02.12 | OHIO (Rasmussen)
Obama 49%, Romney 49%
- 11.05.12 | OHIO (SurveyUSA)
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The really damaging numbers are the averages for Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin….all at ~5% on the plus side for the President now (well outside the margin of error for almost all polls). Given everything we already know, that means President Obama could afford to lose Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado.
And win a narrow EV vitory anyway. Wow!!!
But that’s not going to happen. President Obama will probably take at least 2 or 3 of those 6 above mentioned states.
It’s no wonder Romney is trying a last minute “Hail Mary” play for Pennsylvania. Much like McCain did in 2008. It’ll probably work out about the same for Romney as it did for McCain. But…you have to try to make a play of some kind. Regardless.
And on an ironic note, a new Pew Poll released today shows President Obama up Nationally 50% to 47%.
http://pewresearch.org/
47%? I’ve seen that number somewhere…..let me see.
Oh well. Oops…….its slipped my mind.
The fact that Obama will win Nevada is insane considering its unemployment rate. If the GOP didn’t have so much hate in their hearts for Latinos, they could’ve had it in the bag. Same with CO. I’m kinda of hoping they get even more extreme with the anti-immigrant stuff so Latinos can start voting for Democrats at the same rate blacks do (I say this as a Latino). Obama was right, voting IS the best revenge.