Election Day Schedule: What To Watch For Hour-By-Hour

I’ll be tweeting my thoughts on the election live tomorrow so be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Here’s a quick look at what will happen when tomorrow and what will tell you how the election is going early on.

7PM ET: Polls close in Virginia, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vermont. Five of those states aren’t in play and should be called instantly. The big one here is Virginia. Expect the networks to label it as “too close to call.” It will give us our first glimpse of what kind of electorate is turning out to vote. The exit polling data for Virginia will be very telling. If the electorate matches what polls have been predicting, it points to polling not being off, meaning Obama is likely going to win (not necessarily win Virginia, but the election at large). If the electorate doesn’t match up, and is more favorable to Romney, we’re in for a wild night of surprises.

7:30PM ET: Polls close in Ohio, North Carolina, and West Virginia. West Virginia should get called right away for Romney. The question is, what will happen with the two big ones — Ohio and North Carolina? While it will likely take time for both to be called, Obama is expected to win Ohio and Romney expected to win North Carolina. While Ohio may be close, North Carolina being close would be a bad sign for Romney. An electorate where North Carolina is close points to a national landscape that is bad for Republicans. Again, the exit polling data out of Ohio should tell us key information, mainly the party ID split in that state. If it is +7% or more Democrat, good for Obama and in line with polling. If it is +5% Democrat or below, much more favorable for Romney and indicates that polling is wrong.

8PM ET: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington, DC. Most of these should be called right away. The exceptions are obviously Florida, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. If Pennsylvania looks close, it’s a good sign for Romney. If New Hampshire looks very close, it’s also probably a good sign for Romney. And if Florida looks really close, it’s a good sign for Obama. Again, an electorate where Florida is essentially tied points to an unfavorable national landscape for Republicans. By this point, we should also have an idea of who is going to win Virginia, and that should tell us everything. If Obama wins it, the election is essentially over. If Romney wins, he is holding serve. Romney should also be on his way to victory in North Carolina by now, or at least opening up a lead, otherwise it’s a troubling sign for him. Same for Obama in Ohio. If that isn’t what is happening, polls are off.

8:30PM ET: Polls close in Arkansas. It should be called right away for Romney. Pennsylvania should be showing a solid Obama lead by now and possibly should be called. If it isn’t, troubling sign for Obama.

9PM ET: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. The ones to watch here are Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. All four should favor Obama if polling is correct. Michigan and Minnesota should be called relatively quickly. If they aren’t, it points to a bad national landscape for Obama and overperforming by Romney. Wisconsin should be close, but it’s part of Obama’s firewall. If Romney is doing better than expected there, it’s a very good sign for him. Colorado should be close and may take another hour or two to call. At this point though, we should know who will win based on exit polling data and the results that have come in so far. Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, unless they are all exceptionally close, should be clear. If Romney isn’t on his way to winning North Carolina and Virginia by now, or if Obama is not doing as well as expected in Ohio or New Hampshire, it tells us what we need to know. If the polls are right, we will know by now, as Obama should be on his way to victory in Ohio and New Hampshire, with Virginia and possibly North Carolina still remaining “too close to call.” It’s also worth noting here that Nebraska has one electoral vote for the district made up by Omaha that Obama won in 2008. If that isn’t called right away for Romney, it would be a bad sign for him.

10PM ET: Polls close in Iowa, Montana, Nevada, and Utah. Iowa and Nevada are two other states that are part of Obama’s firewall, and he should jump out to leads in both of them. If he doesn’t, it could be part of a larger underperforming nationally. By this point, if the polls are correct, an Obama win should be clear based on the results in Virginia, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Florida. Obama should be on his way to victory in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. Any issues there and it points to polls being wrong and Romney overperforming. Romney should also be on his way to victory in North Carolina, if he isn’t, it’s a sign Obama is overperforming.

11PM ET: Polls close in California, Hawaii, Idaho, North Dakota, Oregon, and Washington. All of these should be called right away. Again, by now, we should have a very clear idea who is going to win. If we don’t, we are having a historically close election reminiscent of 2000. Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania should all be in the bag for Obama by now, with Iowa and Nevada also showing him with leads.

1AM ET: Polls close in Alaska. Should be called right away for Romney.

The main point here is that if the polls are right, we’ll know it by 7:30PM ET – 8PM ET at the latest as we see what is happening in Virginia and begin to get exit polling data from Ohio. The party ID split is the key exit poll data you want to look out for, as that is what has been the main point of contention in the polling data. Republicans have been stating that polls are overestimating Democratic turnout. If that is the case, we’ll know it from the exit polling. If it turns out that the polls were projecting the correct party ID split in the various states, Obama will be on his way to victory. If not, anything could happen including a Romney win.

I’ll be tweeting my thoughts on the election live tomorrow so be sure to follow me on Twitter.