Final Swing State Polls Analysis & Thoughts On Who Will Win

Here we are, the final polling update for 2012. We may get a few new polls tomorrow but I doubt I’ll do a full update on them. Instead I’ll focus on the actual signs of turnout tomorrow, along with the inevitable exit polling leaks, partisan freakouts, and the other drama that always unfolds on election night.

Today’s data continues to paint the same picture we’ve been seeing — the national popular vote remains very close (with a slight lead to Obama), while Obama holds larger, more sturdy leads in the key swing states that would put him over 270. As I’ve been saying, polls would have to be fundamentally wrong in several states for Romney to win. It could happen, but the type of polling failure Romney would need has not happened before in recent history. It’s a turnout game now — if Obama turns his sporadic voters out, he’ll win. If he doesn’t, Romney will have a shot.

Earlier today, I posted the election day schedule for tomorrow, with an hour-by-hour look at what to watch for as the results start coming in. I’ll also be tweeting my thoughts live tomorrow as results come in, so be sure to follow me on Twitter.

That being said, here are the final numbers, followed by my analysis.

* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)
* OHIO: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Univ. of Cincinnati)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Gravis)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)
* FLORIDA: Obama 50%, Romney 49% (Public Policy)
* FLORIDA: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Gravis)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* VIRGINIA: Romney 50%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* COLORADO: Obama 52%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* COLORADO: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (Keating)
* NEVADA: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (New England College)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 51%, Romney 48% (WMUR)
* NEW HAMPSHIRE: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 49%, Romney 49% (Public Policy)

* OHIO AVG: Obama +3.0%
* IOWA AVG: Obama +2.3%
* WISCONSIN AVG: Obama +5.3%
* NEVADA AVG: Obama +4.7%
* COLORADO AVG: Obama +2.8%
* VIRGINIA AVG: Obama +1.8%
* FLORIDA AVG: Romney +1.5%
* NORTH CAROLINA AVG: Romney +1.2%
* NEW HAMPSHIRE AVG: Obama +2.8%

* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 45% (RAND)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 47% (ABC/Washington Post)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 47% Pew Research)
* NATIONAL: Obama 50%, Romney 48% (Public Policy)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 47% (UPI)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 46% (Reuters)
* NATIONAL: Obama 49%, Romney 48% (Gallup RV)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 47% (NBC/WSJ)
* NATIONAL: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (SurveyUSA)
* NATIONAL: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Rasmussen)
* NATIONAL: Romney 49%, Obama 48% (Gallup LV)

* NATIONAL AVG: Obama +1.0%

* OBAMA APPROVAL RATING: 52% Approve, 45% Disapprove (Gallup)

* 538 STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 315.3, Romney 222.7
* VOTAMATIC STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 326, Romney 212
* SAM WANG STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 309, Romney 229
* DeSART/HOLBROOK STATISTICAL FORECAST: Obama 281, Romney 257

* REALCLEARPOLITICS POLLING AVERAGES: Obama 303, Romney 235
* POLLTRACKER POLLING AVERAGES: Obama 303, Romney 235
* POLLSTER POLLING AVERAGES: Obama 303, Romney 235

There you have it. That is where the race stands as we go into election day tomorrow. I’ll say it again — if the polls are right, Obama will win tomorrow. If they are wrong, and sporadic Obama voters don’t turn out in the numbers polling models have picked up on, Romney will have a shot. It should be noted that in Nevada, almost 70% of the vote is in, and it is lining up well with the polls (both the polls and early voting numbers point to a 4%-5% Obama win). So if the polls are inherently wrong, it is not showing up in Nevada so far.

Both Gallup and Pew found overwhelmingly majorities approving of Obama’s handling of Hurricane Sandy, and have concluded that he has gotten a boost from the entire event. This could allow him to close strongly with undecideds tomorrow.

In states where whites make up a comparatively small percentage of the electorate — particularly Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Virginia — Obama has a chance to overperform polls like he did in 2008 since he leads overwhelmingly among minorities. Polls usually underestimate Hispanic and African American turnout. On the flip side, states that have very small minority populations, such as Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney could do a bit better than expected.

Obama has a tested, proven ground game that not only worked in 2008, but has registered record numbers of new voters this year as well. The organization that was so successful in 2008, particularly in Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Florida, is intact and has been expanded. Romney’s ground game has had a very mixed record. He underperformed often in the 2008 and 2012 primaries despite having the largest and most well-financed ground operation of anyone running, and was left with the remnants of an almost non-existant McCain 2008 ground game. This will have an impact given how close many of these states are. It’s all about turning out voters, and particularly sporadic/unlikely voters. Signs in early voting point to the Obama campaign having success in turning out newly registered/sporadic voters, but it remains to be seen how that holds up on election day.

Obama’s easiest path to 270 remains Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Jon Ralston has already called Nevada for Obama and Obama has polling average leads of over 3% in both Ohio and Wisconsin. Iowa and New Hampshire are also in this group of firewall states. After that, we’re left with Colorado and Virginia, both of which Obama has polling average leads in but by smaller margins, and then Florida and North Carolina, the two swing states where Romney has polling average leads.

As I explained in the election day schedule I posted earlier, we should have a pretty good idea by 8PM ET tomorrow of where the race is headed. By that point, Virginia polls will have been closed for an hour, meaning we will have robust exit polling data and vote results from the state that will give us insight on the electorate, and we will have 30 minutes worth of Ohio exit polling data and results (Ohio closes at 7:30PM ET). We should have at least a basic idea by then if the polls have been right, particularly on the party ID split, or if we’re headed for a 2000-like election where anything can happen.

My final prediction: Obama 290, Romney 248. This means I’m giving Obama: Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, and New Hampshire (and Pennsylvania, obviously), and giving Romney Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina. Virginia and Florida are going to be VERY close. I encourage you to leave your prediction in the comments. Don’t bother coming here after the election and claiming you called it if your prediction isn’t in the comments before the election, I won’t approve any comments featuring trolls trying to claim to be right after the fact.

I’ll have plenty more to say tomorrow and after the election. Who wins this race will tell us a lot about the country and the future of national politics in America. We’ll also have a fascinating political science case study to examine after tomorrow, once we know how profound the impact of things like the 47% video, Romney’s first debate performance, Obama’s third debate performance, Hurricane Sandy, the country’s rapidly changing demographics and shrinking of the white population, etc. have been. I’ll be breaking all of that down in the days and weeks following the election, as well as looking ahead to the actual task of governing for whoever wins tomorrow.

I’ll also be comparing the final polls with the actual results, so we can see which pollsters were the most consistently accurate, and which weren’t.

In other words, I’ll continue to be updating frequently even after the election ends, so be sure to keep visiting.

I’ll be back tomorrow for election day and will have updates here on the site as well as on Twitter.