GOP Now Facing Political Trap With Hispanic Voters

By Ashish Pabari On November 8, 2012 · 19 Comments

One of the things most Republican pundits/strategists/hacks have finally woken up to following Obama’s electoral landslide win on Tuesday is that they probably can’t continue to lose the Hispanic vote by 40%+ if they ever want to win a national election again. Welcome to 2012.

That being said, solving their problem with Hispanic voters is going to be very politically tricky now. As I said yesterday, this election could be the final real chance the GOP had to win back Hispanic voters. Why do I say that? It’s pretty simple. It is very likely now that Obama is going to try and pass comprehensive immigration reform in his second term. Republicans can play this in one of three ways.

1. They can continue to do what they’ve being doing, take a far-right position on immigration, oppose Obama/Reid’s immigration bill, and guarantee that they will lose the Hispanic vote by even larger margins in 2016.

2. They can suddenly move to the center on immigration reform, work with Obama/Reid on immigration reform, pass immigration reform, and give Obama a huge legislative victory that will pretty much lock up the Hispanic vote as a Democratic voting block for decades, similar to African Americans. The President, fairly or unfairly, always gets the credit or blame for major legislation. Doesn’t matter what role the House and Senate play in passing immigration reform. It’s the President that will be remembered for passing it. Even if House Republicans move to the center and pass a bill Hispanics like, Obama will get the credit and he will be remembered in the Hispanic community forever for passing immigration reform. The end result here, again, is that the Hispanic vote will support Democrats by an even larger margin in 2016.

3. They can try to tack to the left of Obama on immigration reform. This would be a somewhat comical move after the rhetoric from Republicans on the issue over the last six years, and it would cause outrage on the far-right. Pretty much any GOP House or Senate member that moves to the left of Obama on immigration will likely face a Tea Party primary challenge and a tough re-election. This by itself ensures that most GOP House and Senate members won’t even try to shift too far to the center/left on immigration.

Republicans have put themselves in a very tough political box when it comes to Hispanic voters, and I don’t really see how they solve it. The only out they have is if Obama somehow commits political suicide on this issue and simply doesn’t try to pass immigration reform in his second term, but I don’t think he is that politically stupid.

19 Responses to GOP Now Facing Political Trap With Hispanic Voters

DeimosMasque says:

November 8, 2012 at 1:26 AM

The truth is they should be winning the Hispanic vote. Hispanics tend to be hard working, family oriented, religious people. Yet they have to OBSESS over illegal immigration that they look as if they are against all Hispanics as a rule. I’ve been saying this to people since 2004.

They need to do #2. Don’t consider it helping Obama, consider it building bridges with the Hispanic community. It also removes ammunition the Democrat party can use.

“They hate you because your immigrants.”
“No we don’t, we helped Obama and supported his reform.”

But then again I’m crazy. I say invite Mexico to join the United States entirely and cut out the middle man.

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Cbear says:

November 8, 2012 at 1:35 AM

Option #2 appears to be a likely situation for Republicans. The goal there is to be patient with the Latino community. Just like how the Latino vote was initially conservative, it has over time switched.

If Republicans can demonstrate they are willing to work with democrats over immigration, then hopefully over time feelings towards conservatives may soften.

Latino republicans like Florida’s Marco Rubio and Gov. Susana Martinez of New Mexico will be helpful in trying to reshape the image of Republicans.

It will take time and certainly not by 2016 or even several election cycles. However if Republicans work at it then perhaps they can court a new generations of Latinos to their side, just as democrats brought over the children and grandchildren of conservative Hispanic parents.

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- Scipio2009 says:
  
  November 10, 2012 at 4:34 PM
  
  The Latino vote is still conservative, it’s just that the Republican Party is seen as being openly hostile to the Latino community.
  
  Regardless of where you actually stand on an issue, and this idea can be applied more broadly, if one of the two major parties is seen as not wanting you and your community to have a seat at the table, you throw your support to the other party because, at the very least, the want you and your community to be at the table and to be a part of the overall conversation.
  
  Helping on immigration reform can help, but as long as that xenophobic streak continues in the GOP, a 75/25 split, against the Republicans, will be the new reality, regardless of who’s put forward as the face of the party.
  
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willia451 says:

November 8, 2012 at 6:05 AM

Just a quick question. If President Bush could not pass comprehensive immigration reform in 2007 (with a lot of Democratic support), how is that going to happen now?

As soon as Rush Limbaugh even smells the Republicans moving towards option #2, he’ll start screaming “Amnesty”. Then the Tea Party will start publically gearing up primary challengers on the right flank of select “RINOS”. And the whole affair becomes politically toxic in a flash (like it’s not already).

This is not 2009 when President Obama enjoyed large Democratic majorities in the House and Senate. Even then, ACA took 16 months to pass and cost the Democrats plenty.

So, where in the Republican Party is support for such an effort going to come from? The House? Where about half the caucus are Tea Party guys? The Senate? Maybe. But after what happened to folks like Lugar they fear a primary challenge from their right flank as well.

Look. The Tea Party and their cohorts do not care about winning elections. That much should be obvious to all at this point. They only care about their agenda, ideology, and pushing forward on their Party purification efforts.

Sure. They’ve had some setbacks of late. But….they don’t care about that either. They will rationalize it somehow and just move on.

I’m not saying President Obama should not try again on reform. I think he should. And aggressively. Even in failure, it would be the final nail in the coffin of Latino support for Republicans.

But let’s be realistic about the probable outcome.

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- Scipio2009 says:
  
  November 10, 2012 at 4:10 PM
  
  As I see it, this a question of the basic survival of the Republican Party and my assumption is, when faced with the death of their party, enough of the GOP will say “to hell with the xenophobes” and step forward. Then again, this assumes some level of rationality in the way the Republicans view the nation and the electorate.
  
  As a side note, the only reason the Affordable Care Act took 16 months was because of outside activists and, to a more serious extent, progressive House Democrats, who acted as if the country had given them, and not President Obama, the mandate.
  
  Once the Baucus’ bill was done in October 2009, with Sen. Olympia Snowe(R-Maine) giving her support and speaking for 2-3 other Senate Republicans, the path to a finished bill was pretty straightforward.
  
  With the Baucus’ bill as the framework, you bring in the subsidies structure from the Kennedy bill, and you have 61-63 Senators, counting the 60-member Senate Democratic Caucus and Sen. Snowe, negotiating the “trigger”.
  
  The House of Representatives makes their mark on increasing the subsidies further, raising the excise tax cap and a few other ideas, while a comromise on the question regarding abortion coverage is worked out, and you could’ve had a bill done Christmas 2009/New Year 2010, with a triggered public option to boot.
  
  Instead, folks got so hung up on the “public option” that Snowe left the conversation, the Lieberman/Ben Nelson nonsense happened, and the House of Representatives was so desperate to pass a bill that they resulted to outlawing abortion, to secure the simle majority that they needed to pass their bill.
  
  Anyway, President Obama ought to stand wherever he is on principle and work to getting folks to his position, from the left and right, by any means neccesary.
  
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Scott B says:

November 8, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Let’s also remember that Puerto Rico finally voted in favor of becoming a state. It has to go through the House and Senate, tough, and that means the Republicans have the same lose-lose situation there as well.

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- Joe says:
  
  November 8, 2012 at 9:45 PM
  
  You have to look deeper than that. Puerto Rico did vote for statehood, but that vote had a large number of voters not voting for either yes or no. Also, the pro-statehood incumbent governor was defeated. So, don’t count on a 51st state anytime soon.
  
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- Jeff says:
  
  November 9, 2012 at 10:04 AM
  
  About 45% of the PR electorate did not vote on that question. If PR is going to become a state, there would need to be a clear popular mandate. Even though the option for statehood “won” at the ballot box it’s clear to the political leadership in PR that the majority doesn’t actually want statehood.
  
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Sean says:

November 8, 2012 at 10:50 AM

It’s a pretty simple political win for Obama as long as he leads on trying to pass reform. If his plan is strong and it passes, it’s obvious he will get the credit. If his plan is strong and Republicans continue to obstruct, he just needs to hammer this point home in the media, putting the failure squarely on the right. Either way, he and his party wins.

Of course, his reform should start with his view, not some centric view thinking the right will actually work with him if he presents a compromised view. That’s what hurt him working on the PPACA. He should have started way left (public option) and compromised down rather than start down only to be rejected anyway.

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- Scipio2009 says:
  
  November 10, 2012 at 3:42 PM
  
  Except that the public never supported the “public option” and, as a candidate, he never even really campaigned on the idea.
  
  Going to the left for the sake of going to the left is bound to backfire, for the simple fact that your opponent can chastise you for “going to your fringe” and the general public will not neccesarily back you either.
  
  Propose a framework reform and leave fewer areas of it open for full-scale negotiation.
  
  Once those parameters are set, be ready and willing to campaign for your vision, even if that means challenging folks in your own party.
  
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Jake says:

November 8, 2012 at 12:53 PM

The Republicans are in a tough spot with this. If they support immigration reform, and in the next 4 years get more diverse in the party, AND start calling out some of the fringe elements like Rush…well MAYBE then things will turn around.

It will take a total “Redefining” of the party. This means changing the perception of the party the general public has based on the vocal far right elements like Rush and others. Disassociate yourself from them, embrace immigration reform, diversify the party, and you have 4 years to get it fixed and changed public perception. If they are serious about it, it can be done. The question is are they serious and do they have the guts to take on the folks that have ruined the party and got it to this point?

Of course being that is the logical thing to do, they will probably go further right, become even more conservative, and do the complete opposite. We can see now many of the talking heads trying to make excuses instead of actually saying there is a problem with the party and their stances on issues like Immigration, Woman’s rights, etc.

They have basically buried their heads in the sand and don’t want address the real issues their party has. They better hope the moderates win the “civil war” because if they don’t, it will be a VERY long time before they are a relevant party again.

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Cbear says:

November 8, 2012 at 8:39 PM

In my opinion, courting the Latino vote is not so much a lose-lose situation for Republicans, rather it will be long climb back to earn their vote again.

Traditional Latino values such as family, religion, a strong work ethic and entrepreneurship are along the lines of conservatism. So Republicans have something to work with and have to focus on that message.

As far as immigration reform goes, the Conservative stance has to soften even if it gives the President some points. The goal to winning back the trust of Latino voters is not 2016 but changing attitudes several years down the line

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- Joe says:
  
  November 8, 2012 at 9:47 PM
  
  Couldn’t one say that these values are the same in the Black community as well? And without a bellweather issue like immigration? No, seems to me the GOP has to dig deeper if they want to become mainstream again.
  
  Reply
  - Mr. Ballistik says:
    
    November 9, 2012 at 12:33 AM
    
    One could say that those values are the same in every community, except Canadians. What, with their flappy heads and square tires.
    
    Reply
  - Scipio2009 says:
    
    November 10, 2012 at 2:58 PM
    
    The GOP has nearly the same problem in the Black community; in general, African Americans are conservative but the Republican Party, in general, is viewed as being openly against the advancement of people of color so they back Democrats, of all stripe, with over 95% of their vote.
    
    If the African American community could vote for leader of the House Democrats, they’d probably back Steny Hoyer over Nancy Pelosi 2-1. If they could do so in the Senate, Harry Reid would top Schumer 2-1 and he’d beat Dick Durbin.
    
    But, for the most part, if an R stands behind the name of a candidate, it might as well stand for racist, because that’s how the vote would likely breakdown.
    
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Nightz says:

November 9, 2012 at 7:57 AM

The other poster is right, hispanics tend to be very religious and they also tend to value honor and family traiditions highly. So you would think the GOP would be a perfect fit for many of them but the GOP is so ass backwards that they could not gain their votes.

By the nature of them being mostly Catholics, they would also agree more with republicans on abortion issue and gay rights.

But alas, they simply need to open up more and realize that they are in 2012. The white vote will have a even lower percentage in 2016 and that trend will likely continue.

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- willia451 says:
  
  November 9, 2012 at 2:59 PM
  
  Dream Act + Path to Citizenship for undocumented workers
  
  greater than (>)
  
  Religion + Abortion
  
  Much, much greater than.
  
  What good does it do to feel the Republicans might agree with you on Abortion rights or faith, when you are constantly concerned that ICE agents are going to drop in and start deporting either you or large chunks of your family? Even if its not you or your family at risk, being stopped by the cops and ordered to show your “papers” to prove you aren’t illegal pretty much says it all right there. At least it would to me.
  
  President Bush understood this. And tried to fix it for the Republicans in his second term by getting a Comprehensive Immigration bill passed.
  
  Unfortunately for the Republicans, their own base got in the way and killed it.
  
  So……….there you have it.
  
  That’s why Latinos are voting Democrat now at 70%+ rates.
  
  Just because President Obama was re-elected is no reason to believe the Republican Base has had a sudden change of heart on their stand on immigration and deportation.
  
  What evidence do we have that something like that might be possible? None. Other than wishful thinking.
  
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  - Scipio2009 says:
    
    November 10, 2012 at 2:45 PM
    
    If your sense of things is accurate, then the GOP is on the verge of going into a “death roll” and being irrelevant as a national party for, at the least, the next 20 years.
    
    Gerrymandering may keep them viable in the House of Representatives for a little while, but that won’t last too much longer.
    
    Reply
Scipio2009 says:

November 10, 2012 at 2:40 PM

The way forward, as I see it, is a pretty simple one for the GOP. I doubt the Republican Party will follow the advise but I’ll put it out anyone:

Have a cadre of Senate Republicans, with Sen. Marco Rubio as the spokesman of the effort, throw their support behind the 2006 Senate immigration bill as the framework for any push on comprehensive reform. Have 10-15 Senate Republicans backing the effort and truly engage in an effort to produce a bill, working with the 55-member strong Senate Democratic Caucus.

The hard-right Senate Republicans will likely filibuster the effort, and there might even be some Democrats who end up not supporting the final legislation, but if they take this initiative, they’d have 65-70 Senators, that’s actually bipartisan, working toward a major immigration reform bill.

Republicans help break the fillibuster, and 6-7 Senate Republicans even vote for the final bill, pushing the final total beyond just a simple majority. The Senate Republicans would end up as co-owners of the effort on comprehensive immigrations reform.

And then you have Senate Republicans campaigning for the House of Representatives to pass their bill, whole-cloth. Have Rubio, with the likely additions of Sen Graham and the two Tennessee Senators, campaign in their home states and across the country for immigrations reform, speaking to why folks should support the effort in a conservative point of view.

Have the media show these Senators facing down those in their party who would rather see nothing done but building a fence, and show them not flinching. The assumption is that, eventually enough members of the House, from both parties, would come together to push the bill over 218. Regardless, soup to nuts, the GOP would’ve been a constructive actor in the push for comprehensive immigration reform.

And then you run Sen. Marco Rubio for President of the United States. You have him openly face down the xenophobic streak that has gained root in the GOP, and you have him present the conservative vision, whatever that ends up being, of how the Republican Party will face a nation that is younger, browner, and more tolerant than it’s been in history. Challenge those who only wish to “take our country back” and offer a positive and inclusive, though deeply conservative, way forward.

Not sure if he’d win or lose, and I’m assuming that he’d also run for re-election in Florida, but this hypothetical run would have split the Latino vote 40/60, with conservative and centrist Latinos reconsidering the appeals of the Republican Party, and even have conservative African American voters (25/75) reconsidering the GOP.

Still, as a downside to the push, you might also end up with splitting the Republican Party, with a rightwing, largely xenophobic party forming, damaging the prospects for the GOP in the short term. As far as I see it, that’s worth the risk.

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