New Swing State Polls: NC, OH, VA, CO, FL, PA — Obama Expanding Leads, AZ Looking Surprisingly Close

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Another day with quite a bit of new swing state polling data and the story remains the same — Obama seems to be expanding his leads in all the key swing states among all pollsters. We have several new polls today from Purple Strategies, a firm that has been Rasmussen-like in that their results have shown better numbers for Romney than the majority of other polls. All their new numbers show good results for Obama, and also paint Arizona as a new swing state. I’ve included the percentage shift to Obama compared to Purple’s previous poll of the state.

The numbers are below, followed by my analysis.

* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 48%, Romney 44% – Obama +7% since August (High Point)
* NORTH CAROLINA: Obama 48%, Romney 46% – No Previous Poll (Purple)
* OHIO: Obama 48%, Romney 44% – Obama +6% since August (Purple)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 46%, Romney 43% – Obama +6% since August (Purple)
* COLORADO: Obama 48%, Romney 45% – No Change Since August (Purple)
* FLORIDA: Romney 48%, Obama 47% – No Change Since August (Purple)

As we’ve seen in other polls, there has been big shifts to Obama in Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. Those two North Carolina numbers are pretty troubling for Romney as that has been the one swing state where Romney seemed to be polling ahead prior to this week. If Obama wins North Carolina, it will probably be part of a larger 2008-like landslide. The Florida number is a decent one for Romney since he isn’t trailing, but he needs to be leading in all these states, not just one.

And then there is Purple’s surprising Arizona numbers which have Romney up by just 3%, 48% to 45%. The numbers obviously indicate the ongoing shift of Hispanics to Obama in very big numbers. We’ll need to see another poll showing a close race in Arizona though before we consider it a legitimate swing state.

We also got a new Pennsylvania poll from Rasmussen which has Obama up big, 51% to 39%. Pretty clear that Pennsylvania is not in play this year, but I think the state says a lot about where things are in Ohio. If Obama is up this much in Pennsylvania, to where even Rasmussen has him up 12% despite using the most favorable Romney electorate model of any pollster, it would stand to reason that Obama is doing very well in the neighboring state of Ohio which has a lot of similarities in terms of demographics.

When you step back and look at this week’s swing state polls as a whole, it is unmistakable that there is an ongoing shift to Obama in pretty much every single swing state. It is also unmistable that Romney has serious problems in Ohio and Virginia, where Obama’s rise seems most pronounced.

Nate Silver wrote today that we might have started to see Obama’s convention bounce fade last week, only for him to get another boost this week following Romney’s 47% comments. The damage from those comments seems very real and very bad, and it could continue to escalate next week as polls fully account for voter reaction to the comments (most of the polls this week included data from days before the Romney 47% comments and before it became a giant news story). Next week’s polls will show the effects of what has been non-stop media coverage, on everything from cable news and the national news to Letterman, Leno, and SNL.

I’m a big believer in the impact of non-news shows on Presidential elections. Undecided voters tend to be low information voters, they don’t watch cable news and they don’t keep up with politics. A lot of their perceptions on what the candidates are like and what characteristics they have come from how they are portrayed on shows like Leno, Letterman, SNL, and other non-news shows that talk about political issues. In 2008, Sarah Palin being Sarah Palin led to her becoming a regular joke on all the non-news shows, and that played a big role in the general public’s view of not only her, but the guy who picked her, John McCain. IN 2004, it was John Kerry that was often ridiculed by these shows for being a flip-flopper, and that sunk in with voters.

We’re starting to see the same thing happen this year, with the “Romney’s a rich, Mr. Burns-type white guy hating on poor people” image being portrayed and promoted by most of the entertainment media following the 47% video which reinforced all those characteristics.

I think the best way to summarize how bad a week it has been for Romney is with what Herman Cain said today. Cain said he would be doing better than Romney right now if he was the nominee, and that he would have a “substantial lead” at this point. When asked why he’d be doing better than Romney, here’s what he said.

“The reason is quite simple: I have some depth to my ideas.”

Not only are Senate candidates like Tommy Thompson, Linda McMahon, and Scott Brown distancing themselves from Romney following the 47% comments, you now have Herman Cain taking public shots at the nominee from his own party. The Romney campaign has got to get control of the messaging coming out of the party they represent, as this “Romney has already lost” meme has spread dramatically this week to the point where it is not only saturating the news media, it is saturating the entertainment news media that I talked about above. These things can often become self-fulfilling prophecies if the campaign in question isn’t able to stop the bleeding.

One bright spot for Romney — what has been the worst week of his campaign is now coming to an end. We’ll see what next week has in store for us.