Saturday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, FL, VA, National
We have a few new swing state polls today. Numbers are below, followed by my analysis.
* FLORIDA: Obama 47%, Romney 46% — Romney +3% since 6 weeks ago (SurveyUSA)
* OHIO: Obama 49%, Romney 48% — Romney +4% since 1 week ago (Public Policy)
* VIRGINIA: Obama 49%, Romney 47% — Romney +1% since 2 weeks ago (Public Policy)
Compared to the other polls we’ve been seeing out of Florida, most of which show Romney leads, the SurveyUSA poll of the state is a good number for Obama. Many are now questioning whether it continues to make sense for the Obama campaign to spend so much money in an expensive state like Florida which is trending to Romney, and which Obama doesn’t need to win. So far, the Obama campaign has not shown any signs that they are going to concede the state, though.
Public Policy continues their recent string of non-sensical poll numbers. Does anybody really believe Obama has a bigger lead in Virginia than in Ohio? I’ll let those numbers speak for themselves, and add once again that the days of robo-pollsters are hopefully coming to an end. We continue to see very erratic results from the robo-pollster group led by Public Policy and Rasmussen.
* RAND: Obama +3% (49%-46%)
* IBD/TIPP: Obama +3% (47%-44%)
* Public Policy: Obama +2% (49%-47%)
* Reuters: Obama +1% (46%-45%)
* Rasmussen: Romney +1% (49%-48%)
* Gallup: Romney +6% (51%-46%)
The national trackers today are more or less unchanged from yesterday when you average them all together. Obama gained 1% in both the IBD/TIPP and Public Policy trackers, lost 1% in the RAND and Rasmussen trackers, lost 2% in Reuters, and stayed the same in Gallup. A new NBC/WSJ/Marist national poll will be released Sunday, I’d put a lot more weight in what that poll says than what any of these tracking polls say.
Going back to the Florida thing. Right now, Obama’s path to victory runs through Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. Those states combine to get Obama to 277 electoral votes. It’s his firewall. Nevada is showing no signs of fading from Obama’s column, particularly in light of today’s news that shows Democrats now have a 7% voter registration edge in the state, up from 4% back in March. Obama’s back-up plan outside of these firewall states revolves around Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire, three states which are by all accounts toss-ups right now. It does raise the question of what the value is in investing so much in two very expensive states like Florida and North Carolina which have strongly trended to Romney since the Denver debate. If Obama does lose the election due to one of his firewall states not holding, there are going to be a lot of angry Democrats and surprised pundits who will question whether it was wise to invest so much in two red-leaning states in a climate where unemployment was high and the election was going to be close. Florida and North Carolina are states Democrats win in big years, like 2008, not in toss-up years, like 2000, 2004, and, from how it seems now, 2012. I’m not saying Obama can’t win Florida, just saying that given how the electoral map looks right now, it may not be the best investment towards the only goal that matters — winning.
Tagged with: 2012 Presidential Election • Barack Obama • Florida • Mitt Romney • National Polls • Ohio • Polls • Virginia
If you enjoyed this article, please consider sharing it!
10 Responses to Saturday Swing State Polls Analysis: OH, FL, VA, National
Leave a Reply Cancel reply
Latest Key State Polls
- 11.05.12 | OHIO (SurveyUSA)
Obama 49%, Romney 44% - 11.05.12 | OHIO (Gravis)
Obama 49%, Romney 48% - 11.05.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (Rasmussen)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.05.12 | COLORADO (Keating)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.05.12 | FLORIDA (Gravis)
Obama 49%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | COLORADO (Public Policy)
Obama 52%, Romney 46% - 11.05.12 | NEVADA (Public Policy)
Obama 51%, Romney 47% - 11.05.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR)
Obama 51%, Romney 48% - 11.05.12 | OHIO (Univ. of Cin)
Obama 50%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (New Eng. Coll.)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.05.12 | VIRGINIA (Rasmussen)
Romney 50%, Obama 48% - 11.05.12 | OHIO (Rasmussen)
Obama 49%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | FLORIDA (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | NORTH CAROLINA (Public Policy)
Obama 49%, Romney 49% - 11.05.12 | VIRGINIA (NBC/WSJ)
Obama 48%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | OHIO (Public Policy)
Obama 52%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | VIRGINIA (Public Policy)
Obama 51%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.04.12 | IOWA (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.04.12 | OHIO (YouGov)
Obama 49%, Romney 46% - 11.04.12 | FLORIDA (YouGov)
Romney 48%, Obama 47% - 11.04.12 | VIRGINIA (YouGov)
Obama 48%, Romney 46% - 11.04.12 | WISCONSIN (YouGov)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.04.12 | COLORADO (YouGov)
Obama 48%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (YouGov)
Obama 47%, Romney 43% - 11.04.12 | NEVADA (YouGov)
Obama 49%, Romney 45% - 11.04.12 | IOWA (YouGov)
Obama 48%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | NORTH CAROLINA (YouGov)
Romney 49%, Obama 47% - 11.04.12 | IOWA (Des Moines Register)
Obama 47%, Romney 42% - 11.04.12 | WISCONSIN (Public Policy)
Obama 51%, Romney 48% - 11.04.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (UNH)
Obama 47%, Romney 47% - 11.04.12 | OHIO (Columbus Dispatch)
Obama 50%, Romney 48% - 11.03.12 | OHIO (Grove)
Obama 49%, Romney 45% - 11.03.12 | WISCONSIN (Grove)
Obama 48%, Romney 42% - 11.03.12 | IOWA (Grove)
Obama 47%, Romney 44% - 11.03.12 | OHIO (NBC/WSJ)
Obama 51%, Romney 45% - 11.03.12 | FLORIDA (NBC/WSJ)
Obama 49%, Romney 47% - 11.03.12 | FLORIDA (Miami Herald)
Romney 51%, Obama 45% - 11.02.12 | OHIO (CNN)
Obama 50%, Romney 47% - 11.02.12 | OHIO (WeAskAmerica)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.02.12 | WISCONSIN (WeAskAmerica)
Obama 52%, Romney 45% - 11.02.12 | VIRGINIA (WeAskAmerica)
Obama 49%, Romney 48% - 11.02.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (Gravis)
Obama 50%, Romney 49% - 11.02.12 | COLORADO (SurveyUSA)
Obama 47%, Romney 45% - 11.02.12 | COLORADO (Public Policy)
Obama 50%, Romney 46% - 11.02.12 | IOWA (Gravis)
Obama 49%, Romney 45% - 11.02.12 | NEW HAMPSHIRE (New Eng College)
Obama 50%, Romney 44% - 11.02.12 | OHIO (Rasmussen)
Obama 49%, Romney 49%
- 11.05.12 | OHIO (SurveyUSA)
Recent Comments
- willia451 on Boehner’s Plan B Fails, Exposes His Weakness & House GOP Chaos
- Cajun Mark on Boehner’s Plan B Fails, Exposes His Weakness & House GOP Chaos
- willia451 on Boehner’s Plan B Fails, Exposes His Weakness & House GOP Chaos
- Russ on Boehner’s Plan B Fails, Exposes His Weakness & House GOP Chaos
- Alan on Boehner’s Plan B Fails, Exposes His Weakness & House GOP Chaos
Tag Cloud
2012 Presidential Election 2016 Presidential Election Ann Romney Arizona Barack Obama Big Bird Bobby Jindal Chris Christie Colin Powell Colorado Debates Democratic Party Economy Electoral College Map Florida George W. Bush Hillary Clinton Hispanics Immigration Reform Iowa Iran Israel Joe Biden John Boehner John McCain Libya Marco Rubio Mitt Romney National Polls Nevada New Hampshire North Carolina Ohio Palestine Paul Ryan Pennsylvania Polls Republican Party Ronald Reagan Rush Limbaugh Tea Party Texas The 47% Virginia Wisconsin
The problem is one of strategy. If Obama pulls out of Florida, the Romney campaign will KNOW they are giving up on Florida and will re-allocate resources accordingly freeing up significant resources to tackle Ohio, Col, Iowa, Wisconsin. Therefore any money saved by Obama by pulling out will be offset by money saved by Romney. Best strategy is to make Romney’s campaign spend its resources across as many places especially since their ground game is not as good. So long as polls are within two to three points it makes sense for Obama to at least show he’s still battling for it. If polls really start to go south then better to move on.
You point is excellent and makes perfect sense. If Romney has to fight for Florida (even if it looks like he’ll win it by a slim margin) then that’s an advantage to Obama. it’s highly unlikely that Romney can win without Florida and North Carolina, so Romney has to keep fighting for those states. If Obama keeps running ads and visiting those states so does Romney, which distracts him from working on states that Obama has a better edge in like Nevada, Wisconsin, and Iowa, some of which Romney would need to win as well.
I understand the point of making sure Romney continues to spend money in FL and NC, what I’m saying if Obama should reduce spending in those two states in a way that doesn’t scream “WE ARE CONCEDING THESE STATES” and shift those resources to Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire. It’s not like you either have to go all-in or concede. Obama spent $5 million in NC last week alone, not to mention Michelle Obama campaigning there. You can still compete in NC without spending that much money and key surrogate time on a state you’re likely to lose.
Focus on Ohio more than Florida but it could be a classic misdirection techinque scare Romney into focusing more on Florida and distract him from Ohio. Which is kinda working.
Also second question Does any of these Florida polls target the hispanic communities?
I don’t know if they do or not, but Obama’s going to do worse with the hispanic population in Florida than he is with hispanics elsewhere. Many of the Florida hispanics are Cuban, and Cubans are significantly more conservative and republican than the hispanic community at large. Obama may still win the hispanic vote in Florida, but it won’t be by nearly the same margin that he’ll win it in the rest of the country.
Bruce don’t act like Romney’s already won. What are you gonna do after he’s reelected? Move to Siberia? By the way brilliant of you to use his middle name in such an insulting way. You have shown everybody how ignorant you really are.
I don’t have a problem if you’re not a liberal like me support Romney. That’s your personal choice and if you honestly think the country would be better served by sending Obama back to Chicago for an early retirement then by all means do so. But its when ignorant people use insulting language against the president where I draw the line. There’s no place for that crap. Thanks for deleting that post Ashish.
While I agree with your overall point, Ash, Obama needs to keep some of the battle on Romney’s turf, as it were. Making him fight for Florida and Virgina, keeps Romney on the defensive. Otherwise Romney would be free to simply attack Obama states. At least this way Obama isn’t just defending. Well technically he is, but you know what I mean.
I’m actually surprised that Obama didn’t make more of a play for Indiana. It’s 11 points and it could have put him over the edge. Granted, he only won by the smallest of margins in 2008, but there seems to be a tide slowly turning in Indiana and he could have at least made a small play for it. Instead, he gave Indiana up early on. That leaves the senate and governor races there with an advantage for the Republicans. Whereas Obama could have helped them out and perhaps worked to make that a state that turns blue more often. He won pretty much entirely on the GOTV effort in northern Indiana, but hasn’t even tried this year. He wasn’t winning all of Indiana anyway, but he could have at least made a play for it early on.
Obviously it’d be foolish now, but I wonder if it made sense to cut it so early on in the process. Nobody expected him to get Indiana last year, except for some of us folks in Indiana. When Obama made an appearance here last year, it made a big deal. He had a great ground campaign in Indiana.
Oh wow, unbelievable point Bruce. Gee, you really convinced me. Never mind Obama has cut taxes for everyone (payroll tax cut goes to wealthy people too), and the average middle class family has seen their taxes cut by more than $2000 per year the past four years. Not too mention he cut business taxes 16 times (including 100% accelerated depreciation). But since you reminded me that the president’s middle names is Hussein, I guess I will vote for Romney. Thanks for helping us out with your invaluable insight.