Debate Preview: Obama’s Chance To Stand Tall On Foreign Policy

I’ll be tweeting my live debate thoughts tonight during the debate so be sure to follow me on Twitter.

Tonight is the final Presidential debate with the focus on foreign policy. The first debate had a lot riding on it — Obama had opened up a sizable lead and Romney had to have a very strong debate to turn things around, and he did. The second debate also had a lot riding on it — Romney had seized the momentum and Obama had to rebound from his subpar first debate performance and stop the bleeding, and he did. Tonight’s third debate doesn’t feel like it has the same weight as the first two.

The economy is overwhelmingly the most important issue to people, meaning a debate on foreign policy will offer the candidates very few chances to actually deliver blows that impact the overall election. The electorate is also much more defined and solidified now than it was two weeks ago or even a week ago, as leaners seem to have made up their minds.

All that being said, Obama does carry some advantages going into tonight, as incumbents usually do in foreign policy debates. He is much more comfortable and confident when speaking about foreign policy than he is about the economy. He tends to project a lot more strength when discussing foreign policy. Romney has never lived foreign policy and will have to base his views and arguments on what he has studied, where as Obama will base his on what he has lived during the last four years as Commander in Chief.

Romney has based his entire campaign on the economy, and he has a strong message to sell on that issue. He has real-world experience that makes him comfortable on the topic and gives him some authority. On foreign policy, he is a former Governor with no previous experience and, not surprisingly, he usually flounders. He blew the Libya issue at last week’s debate, has failed to gain much on the Obama campaign’s handling of Libya largely due to self-inflicted gaffes, did not do well on his overseas trip, has virtually the same policy towards Afghanistan as Obama does, etc. All of this makes it hard for Romney to come in tonight and play offense in a way that doesn’t sound like he is politicizing small details, ignoring his own plans, or being overly negative, even un-patriotic, about a foreign policy that most Americans are happy enough with to not really think much about right now.

While the Iran issue is topical given the weekend’s news and will be a focal point tonight, the reality is that most Americans don’t think about foreign policy much outside of major things like all-out war. The foreign policy issues that do resonate to average people — the killing of Osama Bin Laden, the end of the Iraq war, and the pending withdrawal from Afghanistan — are areas that Americans are currently pretty happy with relating to Obama’s foreign policy. Obama has a story he can tell on these issues, especially the Bin Laden killing that, if done properly, could be the debate-stealing moment of the night. The killing of Bin Laden is perhaps the most universally praised accomplishment Obama has, and he will need to find a way to use that tonight without seeming overly political about. It’s a major weapon he has that Romney has no counter to.

I’d anticipate the China issue being another focal point of the debate tonight, partly because both candidates think they have a winning hand on it, but also because it allows both candidates to tie things back to the issue voters really care about — the economy. Who is able to make an economic message effectively in a foreign policy debate? Who will be able to make middle-class voters in Ohio care about a foreign policy debate? Whoever does that best will probably do well tonight.

As always, debates are not really about the meat of policies and issues, they tend to be judged on the presentation — who’s confident, Presidential, and aggressive. This is especially true in a foreign policy debate where Obama can stand tall as Commander in Chief while Romney will have to try and get voters to view him as someone who can become Commander in Chief. The economy has been where Romney has seemed most comfortable and aggressive. But on foreign policy, he will have a much harder time seeming like a guy who is in his element. Incumbents tend to win foreign policy debates for that very reason — it’s just hard to make a convincing argument against a President’s foreign policy when you’ve never had to deal with the issue before, particularly in a way that doesn’t seem like politicizing or un-patriotic. It was hard to do for John Kerry in 2004 when so many were not happy with George W. Bush’s foreign policy, and it’ll be even more difficult to do in 2012 since most are generally content enough with Obama’s foreign policy.

Romney comes in as the underdog. He’ll need to avoid making the type of gaffe he made on the Libya issue last week. Romney successfully convinced America in the first debate that he is capable of handling the economy, but he has blown every opportunity he has had to convince America he can be the Commander in Chief. Tonight will likely be his final chance to do so before the election. Obama, on the other hand, finally has his moment to shine light on what most would consider the most successful part of his first term.

Outside of some major gaffe or a totally lopsided win like we saw in the first debate, I don’t expect the numbers to move a whole lot following tonight’s debate. This isn’t 2004, the country is not pre-occupied with foreign policy anymore. All we’ll likely see tonight is both sides get even more defined as we head into the closing stretch of the election. Tonight will be about trying to capture momentum, particularly the media narrative momentum, going into the final two weeks and solidifying support at the margins. Whoever the media declares the winner will then be considered to have won 2 out of the 3 debates, and that’s something we’ll hear a lot about in the coming days.

I’ll be tweeting my live debate thoughts tonight during the debate so be sure to follow me on Twitter.